The effect of 100% import tax on imports from Serbia

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See how the value of imports from Serbia to Kosovo was reduced drastically due to 100% tax on imports from Serbia.

Kosovo’s government imposed a 100% tax on products imported from Serbia on 21 November 2018. Looking at the foreign trade data published by Kosovo Customs, the effects of the import tax on the decrease of imports from Serbia were immediately observed in November 2018. The graph shows a comparison of the import value for November, December and January, and February for 2015, 2016, 2017, compared with import value of the same months in 2018 and 2019.

In November 2015, 2016 and 2017 Kosovo imported from Serbia an average of 33 million EUR worth of goods, whereas in November 2018 only 15 million EUR; due to 100% import tax the import value from Serbia was reduced in November 2018, despite the fact that the tax was set at the end November, respectively November 21, 2018.

A sharper decline can be observed in December 2018, compared to the average import value from Serbia over the previous three years during the month of December, which was 39 million EUR, in December 2018 the value of imports from Serbia was only EUR 5.31 million, which in percentage terms is an 87% decline in imports from Serbia in December 2018. An even stronger decline in imports from Serbia continued in January 2019, where the import value from Serbia was only 790,000 EUR and in February 2019 480,000 EUR.

In the table below you can see how the import value changed during January 2018 – February 2019 for each product by quarterly periods (Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4). The table shows the quarterly import value from Serbia for the respective products as well as the quarterly growth rate. The quarter to quarter growth rate shows in percentage terms how the value of imports from Serbia has changed for each product listed on a quarterly basis. We can see that the import of raw sugar is reduced by 58.61% in Q4 2015 and by 100% in Q1 2019. It must be noted that the not all products imported from Serbia are subject to the 100% import tax; therefore, the decrease in imports for some products (i.e. Electricity) are not as a result of tax but are a result of other reasons beyond the scope of this analysis. It can be noted that import value of Electricity started to drop in Q2 2018 well before the tax was placed.

You can explore the scaled chart and tables in the other tabs of this data story named “Chart Scaled”, “The decline of imports”,

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